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afwriter
afwriter
9/23/2016 11:15:14 PM
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Interesting
I find all of this really interesting, but I don't like the idea of them just playing your next show or movie for you.  We are still humans and the machines do not control us yet. 

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elizabethv
elizabethv
9/24/2016 9:27:50 AM
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Platinum
Re: Interesting
@afwriter - I agree, I don't really care for the idea either. I like choices. I like to be able to see my choices and pick which one appeals to me. Which I would like to think is slightly more random than a computer algorithm can ascertain. I suppose I could be wrong, maybe I'm just as predictable as everyone else, maybe moreso. I have no idea. But I still want a choice. Several of them.

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batye
batye
9/24/2016 10:51:23 AM
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Platinum
Re: Interesting
@afwriter inteesting observation, but technology changing and everything this days try to use predictive algorithms and Predictive analytic with idea they would know what consumer wants...

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mpouraryan
mpouraryan
9/24/2016 4:38:22 PM
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Platinum
Re: Interesting
Such is already here--just last night I called up my Amazon FireTV and immediately had suggestions--it is already here I would humbly and respectfully suggest.    What I also note is how this is being leveraged as a "revenue" model at least for Amazon FireTV--even when one wishes to "call up" a free Amazon Prime movie, there are at least 5 different choices with a rental or even a purchase option--and in the case of AmazonFire, you can always got to Netflix From it--truly interesting times--right?

 

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elizabethv
elizabethv
9/25/2016 1:18:36 AM
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Platinum
Re: Interesting
@mpouraryan - Amazon and even Netflix both recommend movies based on your previous selections. That is already here. And I'm fine with that, in most cases both have done a fair job of recommending movies I find at least remotely interesting. But there are still choices. A list for you to scroll through of a few things you might possibly like. From my understanding, this new model would aim to have the one perfect movie available for you to watch right when you want it. For me, that's an end game changer I have no interest in. My husband doesn't even know me well enough to typically pick the one exact thing I want the exact moment I want it. Except for Twix, you can bet I almost always am okay with having a Twix. But what I want to watch? I want choices. Right now I have 7 different movies downloaded to my phone to watch while I'm at work tonight. Which ones I'll actually watch? I don't even know that yet. That a computer could tell me that, that's a little too much like the Matrix for my tastes. 

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mpouraryan
mpouraryan
9/25/2016 10:32:20 AM
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Platinum
Re: Interesting
One can always choose not to have Netflix--we have to make sure that we do our part to retain control.    What I would be curious to see is how Netflix fares as they are trying to do "the thinking for us" on October 17 when they're due to announce their results.  So far, as of Friday, their stock is trading in a narrow range.

 

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JohnBarnes
JohnBarnes
9/26/2016 8:21:48 PM
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Platinum
Re: Interesting
ElizabethV,

I've already seen machine-intelligence models that can include the pleasures of shopping and delayed choice -- that is, a consumer may simply prefer/like better to make a partial choice and then linger over making a final one for the fun of lingering and considering and sampling.  (That's what food festivals are all about, for example!) They can and do predict what consumers will settle on but what they want to look at first (you see that in some Amazon predictions about "customers looked at this and ultimately bought that").

They're already on to you, and two jumps ahead besides.

Resistance is futile.

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mpouraryan
mpouraryan
9/24/2016 4:43:07 PM
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Platinum
Re: Interesting
It is up to us to be able to make sure we retain control--why this is not in fact possible is a dilemma I think about all the time.    

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JohnBarnes
JohnBarnes
9/28/2016 7:51:44 AM
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Platinum
Re: Interesting
mpouraryan,

Rephrasing that: it will make us happier if we maintain the idea that we are in control, and so far maintaining that idea has been assigned to us, pending software that can do it for us.

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elizabethv
elizabethv
9/28/2016 8:23:44 AM
User Rank
Platinum
Re: Interesting
@JohnBarnes - I think you're exactly right with that, so far, we've at least maintained control, or that's what the software wants us to think. And if I were a betting person, I'd imagine that will continue to be the case. Much like the Romans giving people free bread and entertainment just to keep them from rioting. Someone on a political post the other day asserted that the only reason we are told to vote is to give us the idea that our vote has some control. But realistically, for most of us, our vote has no control. I think the people that are keenly aware of this are people in the opposite political party than their state typically votes for. Democrats in strong red states probably noticed pretty quickly their votes don't make a difference. I'm sure there are people in similar situations using various types of computer software.

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JohnBarnes
JohnBarnes
9/28/2016 7:53:50 PM
User Rank
Platinum
Re: Interesting
ElizabethV, Oh, but there is always a catch. To really give you and everyone else what they all really want a system has to be somewhat more complex than the overall aggregate of human desires (since it has to hold that aggregate and operate on its possible alternate states). And if it is that complex it is even less predictable by people than their own aggregate desires. Resistance is futile because it always becomes part of the game, and the game gets better the more we resist!

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elizabethv
elizabethv
9/29/2016 10:21:58 PM
User Rank
Platinum
Re: Interesting
I think that will be the key for Netflix if and when they move forward with this. Keeping us all playing the game. My husband also didn't think he'd care very much for them trying to read his mind. He thought it might be fun once but quickly lose its appeal. I tend to think the powers that be generally know how to keep us mice satisfied, I'm sure they'll think of something. 

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JohnBarnes
JohnBarnes
9/30/2016 7:40:10 AM
User Rank
Platinum
Re: Interesting
ElizabethV,

Oh, there are some major problems built into what Netflix and the other providers seem to be trying to do; the popular entertainment world is a complex ecosystem (or noosystem, pronounced noh-oh-system, if you're trapped in an elevator with a former perfesser who used to teach and research some of this stuff).  Cherry-picking the revenue always leads to the collapse of feeder systems and smaller, less satisfied audiences overall, which is why new media and arts have golden ages (when no one knew what they were doing and great stuff got done by accident), silver ages (when people consolidated around the great stuff), and stamped tinplate ages (when no provider dared to move a tenth of an inch off the formula). Netflix is part of the process of moving from gold to silver. Tinplate will follow; and then, probably due to technical innovation or maybe just to people getting bored, there will be another trough and gold will be found somewhere else. It's happened repeatedly in popular music, theatre, movies, fashion, and I think you could argue in sports as well.

We tend to forget, doing and reading tech commentary and journalism, that tech is still how people do what they want to do.  For decades people really wanted better TV and nobody could make money giving it to them. Now, all of a sudden, if you give it to them you can hardly avoid making money.  But the golden season doesn't last forever, any more than spring does.

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elizabethv
elizabethv
9/30/2016 10:13:10 PM
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Platinum
Re: Interesting
@JohnBarnes - At least for some things, history does seem to repeat itself. I'll be sure to remember noosystem for the next time I'm trapped in an elevator with a former professor. (Actually I'm a former professor that taught Media in American Culture for 4 years.) ;-) I suspect you might have made discussions slightly more interesting than I did. 

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JohnBarnes
JohnBarnes
9/30/2016 10:37:03 PM
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Platinum
Re: Interesting
ElizabethV,


Hey, former professors of communication RULE. We're the only ones that get our own jokes.

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dlr5288
dlr5288
9/30/2016 11:52:21 AM
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Platinum
Re: Interesting
I love Netflix. I remember when I first got it and i thought it was so cool to find all your shows and movies in one place. (Even though its a tight selection). I think as long as Netflix keeps evolving they will be around for a while.

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elizabethv
elizabethv
10/4/2016 4:55:32 AM
User Rank
Platinum
Re: Interesting
@dlr5288 - I agree, I doubt Netflix will be going anywhere any time soon. Even if they do make the changes discussed in the article, I would imagine most people will either grin and bare it, get used to it, or figure out a way around it so they can just use the content they want without feeling strapped to any kid of specific choice. 

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batye
batye
10/13/2016 1:24:00 PM
User Rank
Platinum
Re: Interesting
@elizabethv I could not agree more... how I see it for now Netflix is here to stay... but at the same time Netflix evolving... 

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batye
batye
10/13/2016 1:25:49 PM
User Rank
Platinum
Re: Interesting
@dlr5288 but this day many other Co. get in the game where consumer could find all tv/movies shows in one place... on top of my head it would be Amazon... plus Amazon creting it own shows this days...

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dlr5288
dlr5288
10/31/2016 10:05:21 PM
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Platinum
Re: Interesting
Good point. Amazon is definitley a good place to find everything at once.

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batye
batye
11/1/2016 11:44:46 PM
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Platinum
Re: Interesting
@dlr5288 thank you, this days everyone trying to copy and become Amazon...

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batye
batye
10/13/2016 1:25:50 PM
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Platinum
Re: Interesting
@dlr5288 but this day many other Co. get in the game where consumer could find all tv/movies shows in one place... on top of my head it would be Amazon... plus Amazon creting it own shows this days...

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mpouraryan
mpouraryan
9/28/2016 10:54:42 AM
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Platinum
Re: Interesting
I understand what you're saying--however I am not prepared to give up being human just yet.    

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JohnBarnes
JohnBarnes
9/28/2016 3:03:56 PM
User Rank
Platinum
Re: Interesting
Mpouraryan, I'm not so sure giving up being human is all bad. After all, we all gave up being Australopitheci. And having been to high school with several humans, I'm not so sure being human is a lot to give up.

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mpouraryan
mpouraryan
9/28/2016 3:07:36 PM
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Platinum
Re: Interesting
Despite all the tech "hoopla" around us, we still to retain a sense of sanity and ultimately keep the faith--we've got--otherwise, then, what's the point :) 

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JohnBarnes
JohnBarnes
9/28/2016 10:20:26 PM
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Platinum
Re: Interesting
mpouraryan,

Well, every other species (some apes and cetaceans, and maybe elephants) gets along without having any point that it is aware of.

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mpouraryan
mpouraryan
9/28/2016 11:25:51 PM
User Rank
Platinum
Re: Interesting
I am always fascinated by your Matter-of-fact view of the reality before us--sometimes I can't help but wonder if those very species you noted are smarter than we are--look at what we've done to our Planet (and we claim to be the "Superior" species).     What will be very interesting, though, to see how a company like UPS can adapt.   But that's for a different day 

Let's keep the conversation going!!
:)

 

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afwriter
afwriter
9/28/2016 11:54:08 PM
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Platinum
Re: Interesting
Well, that de-evolved quickly. 

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JohnBarnes
JohnBarnes
9/30/2016 2:29:33 PM
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Platinum
Re: Interesting
Afwriter, I think you just won theGolden Groan for pun of the month.

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freehe
freehe
9/25/2016 2:55:58 PM
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Platinum
Re: Interesting
@afwriter. I agree.

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freehe
freehe
9/25/2016 2:59:07 PM
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Platinum
Netflix Learned to Read Your Mind
It is very courageous of Netflix to think they can read a customer's mind. IoT data will allow Netflix to make good guesses about what certain customers want to view - a population that watches the same TV show each week or the same type of movies.

However, for customers who like variety and watch a variety of TV shows and movies, this feature will not work and will be a waste of time and resources.

In addition, only some customers like the video playing automatically feature. I dislike the feature and would find a way to disable it.

People has unique tastes and interests and no matter how much data they analyze Netflix will never be able to capture each person's unique interests.

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mpouraryan
mpouraryan
9/25/2016 8:31:18 PM
User Rank
Platinum
Re: Netflix Learned to Read Your Mind
I don't view as being "courageous" but smart business--and part of the progress that can't be stopped despite all that our inherent fears as I noted in response to another comment on 4K TV to John--we're already here--For those using Google Inbox, For instance, it is already smart enough to anticipate your answer--so it is not just "The movies"...is it?    

Fascinating times..right? 

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elizabethv
elizabethv
9/26/2016 1:03:37 AM
User Rank
Platinum
Re: Netflix Learned to Read Your Mind
@mpouraryan - that's an interesting comparrison. Yet with Google "reading your mind" on what question you're going to ask, while I do agree they do tend to be right, there have been times where I've found them completely off-base too. And while I might be kind of accepting of Netflix "reading my mind" to some extent when they are right, if they get it wrong a few too many times, I'll either figure out a way to bypass the feature completely, or, like you suggested, leave Netflix as a whole. As much as that would hurt.

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JohnBarnes
JohnBarnes
9/26/2016 8:06:51 AM
User Rank
Platinum
Re: Netflix Learned to Read Your Mind
ElizabethV,

Reading other people is even hard for other people, and we all guess wrong all the time.  Over the weekend I saw a marvelous panel cartoon: couple sitting on a park bench. 

Guy: "Well, I kind of feel like it's time to get -- "

Girl: "YES! I will marry you!"

Guy: ".... coffee."

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mpouraryan
mpouraryan
9/26/2016 1:18:48 PM
User Rank
Platinum
Re: Netflix Learned to Read Your Mind
The key is to never forget in this transformative era we are witness to--that we have to be in control--and make sure we retain the creative edge always.    It is in the end about us--and no machine can replace that.    

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dcawrey
dcawrey
9/27/2016 6:06:11 PM
User Rank
Platinum
Re: Netflix Learned to Read Your Mind
I think this is an interesting concept, but I would argue Netflix is a long way off from simply knowing what I want to watch. I often spend more time on Netflix looking for what I want than acutally watching, mostly because I don't want to start watching something I will turn off. 

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JohnBarnes
JohnBarnes
9/26/2016 8:25:32 PM
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Platinum
Re: Netflix Learned to Read Your Mind
freehe,

Au contraire, people who like mixtures tend to like predictable mixtures, often with a lag effect (if they've watched a lot of vampire musicals lately, they are more ready for superhero romantic comedies, unless their baseline includes a lot of anime noir, in which case they'll want alt history with zombies ...), and that's well-studied and well-understood. If you like to watch a wide variety of things, simple linear regression and hierarchical clustering models can do a very good job of predicting how much your mixture will vary and what you will do to maintain it.

Resistance is futile.

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elizabethv
elizabethv
9/27/2016 6:43:09 PM
User Rank
Platinum
Re: Netflix Learned to Read Your Mind
@JohnBarnes - I like a mixture of things too, but what you say rings very true for me, I know my preferences tend to be cyclical. Right now I'm enjoying my rom-coms and reruns of Grey's Anatomy, but it's only a matter of time before I find myself back in documentaries and reruns of Criminal Minds. I take breaks occasionally and venture into new territory, but without a doubt, I know I'll return to the old faithfuls. I can never resist watching Notting Hill for the 800th time..... 

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mpouraryan
mpouraryan
9/27/2016 6:53:32 PM
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Platinum
Re: Netflix Learned to Read Your Mind
As long as we remember that we're in control--not the machines.

 

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JohnBarnes
JohnBarnes
9/28/2016 7:53:10 AM
User Rank
Platinum
Re: Netflix Learned to Read Your Mind
mpouraryan,

What if the machines want you to think you're in control?

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JohnBarnes
JohnBarnes
9/26/2016 8:04:23 AM
User Rank
Platinum
Re: Interesting
afwriter,

"Yet" is a very small distinction.

Also for good or ill, to "control" anything as self-wiled, flexible, and complex as a human, Neflix's machine intelligence has to be remarkably responsive; it's like working with a bird dog (the dog finds the birds but you're the one that decides to hunt and whether to shoot) or riding a horse (things generally work better if you and the horse achieve an agreement about what should be happening).

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clrmoney
clrmoney
9/24/2016 10:41:47 AM
User Rank
Platinum
NetFlix Mind Reader and Continued Growth
Neflix estimated progit willbe about over 5 billion in 2020 shows how important it is becasue what they have to offer to caputure subcribers or an audience that is interested in what they have to offer.

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JohnBarnes
JohnBarnes
9/26/2016 8:21:39 AM
User Rank
Platinum
With a foot on three stools ...
Credentials: 1) I've written a lot of fiction, it was my main source of income for a long time.  2)I'm retraining in data science and have had some fairly heavy-duty coursework in machine learning. 3) Way back when I was a theatre professor and taught a lot of general humanities, and my academic area was theatre history, aka what was popular a long time ago.

So here's where Netflix is setting themselves up to get rolled someday: most of the time, people want predictability. The great majority of stories sold in all media are nothing new.  Furthermore, most of the time, things creep away from diversity.  For example, in 1959, Westerns and prime time game shows accounted for a majority of entertainment programming. Over time content becomes more and more routinized; the later members of a genre have a huge number of mandatory tropes.

However, there's a logical dynamic: the more routinized the popular genres get and the more rigid the routines become, and the more those genres take up audience space, the more you build up people who want to enjoy something unlike anything they've ever seen before, and who are prepared to enjoy just about anything different and oddball enough.  (You could call that hipsterization.)

Add to that the tendency for people to use entertainment consumption as a way to differentiate themselves from other people.  (Not a new phenomenon; look up the riots that erupted around Hernani and Ruy Blas or The Firebird). 


I can see how machine learning could produce low-level novelty -- "hey, there's only one Western in the lineup but it's drawing its few fans like crazy" -- and might be able to find something like, say, Star Trek or other "sleeper" hits, eventually.  But I think all that does is build up a deeper demand for greater novelty.  Sooner or later you get an explosive birth of a whole new genre, and if Netflix can't find it, it will clobber them (until there's enough data for them to routinize it, and start the cycle over!)

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JohnBarnes
JohnBarnes
9/26/2016 8:46:52 PM
User Rank
Platinum
The contradiction at the heart of the issue
A friendly reader who says he's too shy to get into the argument, but who knows me, just emailed me and pointed out that some of my posts seem to say "Oh, no, don't think you can escape, machine intelligence and big data are much more powerful than that," whereas others seem to be saying that popular entertainment will always escape the algorithms. Here's why I'm saying that, Mr. Anonymous-Boy McChickenPants, and darn it, come out and argue your own points -- that's why we have a comment section!

Anyway, there's a confusion that goes back to Enlightenment philosophy in the West where we tend to think that "having freedom" means "being free to choose." So we think that to have our freedom about Grey's Anatomy has to somehow mean we choose to watch or not watch based on our own priorities.  We do choose, of course, based on those priorities -- but those priorities are not only not altogether ours, they are knowable and manipulable.  But that doesn't really mean resistance is futile (despite what I keep saying); it just means the shopper-and-shelf model isn't how things really work (or ever have).

Acting on the choice feels like freedom. But you don't wholly control your choice. But -- and here's the kicker -- neither does anyone else. Your choice just happens, based on your personal history, temperament, who you hang out with, whether someone you like said something mean to you this morning, your digestion .... in the aggregate those influences become stochastic and they can predict pretty safely that by pitching it in a particular way to 135,000 people like you, they'll get 100,000-110,000 viewers. (That's much better than 30 years ago when they had to pitch to two million and didn't know if it would be 5000 or 500,000).  But whether you will ultimately land in the conformist majority or the dissident minority -- that's probablistic, not deterministic.

There's another sense of freedom, after all -- the sense of "free fall", aka weightlessness, the thing that means that although there certainly is gravity in space (that's what keeps your space station in orbit!) that as long as you and everything around you moves in accord with gravity, you don't feel it.  And that's the freedom that big data and machine learning can't take away; all they can do is help you to stay in the orbit.

"Resistance is futile" -- the Borg

"Resistance is part of the game" -- Carse

"Resistance is voltage divided by amperage" -- Ohm

 

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Michelle
Michelle
9/27/2016 12:56:27 PM
User Rank
Platinum
Queue queue
Netflix does a fair job of suggesting new titles for my household. I don't like the new queue set up. They removed the "continue watching" queue and replaced it with "watch next". The "watch next" queue is just another suggestion list like all the others below it. Suggestions are based on past viewing and ratings just like everything else. I want to resume some shows of my own choosing, not be fed constant suggestions.

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