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clrmoney
clrmoney
12/7/2016 3:14:52 PM
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VNF big targets
They operators said they need to create more data center and maybe they should for VNF so do whatever is needed done. 

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mhhf1ve
mhhf1ve
12/7/2016 3:32:29 PM
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at some time in the future, everyone is virtual!
> "IHS's fourth global carrier survey also found that 100% of the responding operators planned on deploying SDN and NFV at some time."

Wow. I suppose when you don't give a timeframe, everyone will commit to deployments that have no hypothetical downside. 

Still, it seems rare to see 100% of carriers agreeing to do the same thing.... 

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Mike Robuck
Mike Robuck
12/7/2016 5:04:19 PM
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Re: at some time in the future, everyone is virtual!
Good point. He actually repeated the same stat this morning. I'll ask him if I get the chance. 

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Adi
Adi
12/8/2016 6:50:45 AM
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Re: at some time in the future, everyone is virtual!
Yes, I think perhaps that data would have been more valuable if there was a timeframe included in the question, or a set of options that reflected relative enthusiasm, like a five point scale, or relative level of priority across the organization. 

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Ariella
Ariella
12/8/2016 9:02:09 AM
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Re: at some time in the future, everyone is virtual!
@Adi that would lend it more meaningful context. Anther thing to look at is how the questions are set up, which also can influence outcomes to some extent. One more thing: do we know how many people answered the questions and what range they represent?

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mhhf1ve
mhhf1ve
12/8/2016 12:49:44 PM
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Platinum
Re: at some time in the future, everyone is virtual!
It's probably difficult enough to just get valid responses from an industry-wide survey, much less to make sure each question is statistically accurate and not leading (or misleading). The datapoint that everyone surveyed agrees that these deployments are coming is significant in itself. That lays a baseline of what the trend is. Narrowing down the timeframe might actually be tricky since the responses could be material to investors. No one responding to a survey wants to have their company flooded with guidance questions from investors because a ticked box implied a multi-million dollar deployment in the next quarter or two.

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Ariella
Ariella
12/8/2016 12:57:08 PM
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Re: at some time in the future, everyone is virtual!
<No one responding to a survey wants to have their company flooded with guidance questions from investors because a ticked box implied a multi-million dollar deployment in the next quarter or two. > @mhhf1ve they have other ways of trying to find people to target, though they are often wrong in their assumptions. I frequently dowload information about technology for research. But every time I do it, it alerts the sponsoring company to a potential customer. I usually get a phone call a week or so later asking when I'd be considering purchasing a ___. I always have to explain that I'm not in the market myself and only reading for information.

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mhhf1ve
mhhf1ve
12/8/2016 4:59:50 PM
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Platinum
Re: at some time in the future, everyone is virtual!
That just adds more data to suggest that these surveys are highly inaccurate-- since they use self-reported responses and may rely on the respondents to verify their validity as decision makers in the field. Polling is tough. I guess that's why polls didn't predict Trump or Brexit.

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Ariella
Ariella
12/8/2016 5:09:10 PM
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Re: at some time in the future, everyone is virtual!
@mhhf1ve Unfortunately the choices one gets on these pull down menus do not include something like "reading purely for research and not for possible purchases." That's another problem with how things are framed. I try to answer the questions as honestly as I can, but they don't really let me clarify that they would be wasting their time when making a sales call. With Brexit and Trump there were other factors at play, I believe. With the former, of course, the vote was very close, which is actually something I predicted, though I didn't know which way it would go. With the latter, people lost sight of why polls are inaccurate.

A few months before the elections, I heard a lecture by Rayid Ghani, currently the Director of the Center for Data Science & Public Policy at the University of Chicago. He served as the Chief Scientist for Obama for America in 2012 re-election campaign.

Polls are not reliable, Ghani explained, for a number of reasons. One, any poll with a sample size that is under several thousand people doesn't cover enough of a range to be taken as an accurate represent. Two, even larger polls don't necessarily signify an outcome if they cover the whole country rather than offer a breakdown by state.  Finally, even a poll that is generally accurate would have some margin of error.

The people behind presidential elections campaigns aren't supposed to look at polls; they look at the data that will help them achieve their goal. That's because -- and these were his very words --the campaign is not about winning the most votes overall but winning at least 217 electoral votes. Ultimately, the swing states' electoral votes determine which candidate wins. 

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JohnBarnes
JohnBarnes
12/8/2016 10:45:34 PM
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Platinum
Re: at some time in the future, everyone is virtual!
ariella,

In the "good old days" for pollsters in the US, 1200 people was enough because there were only about 66 kinds of people with a 90% conformity -- i.e. 66 demographic groups, 90% of the members of which would have preferences aligned with the group's.  So all you needed was around 15-20 members of the demographic to get pretty close for each group, and then just multiplied them by appropriate population weights.

That was true about 1956-2004, which is to say from Gallup's really crude but brilliant early work up tlll almost today.

Last I saw, it was looking like you needed more like 300 groups and almost none of them had better than 70% conformity, which means you need more like 35-40 group members to get the same accuracy.  300 x 40 = 12,000, so you need to poll about ten times as many subjects.

Polls within industries or markets are a different matter, of course, because large parts of the general population aren't represented, but it's a pretty good overall indicator.

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Ariella
Ariella
12/9/2016 8:57:34 AM
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Re: at some time in the future, everyone is virtual!
<
Polls within industries or markets are a different matter, of course, because large parts of the general population aren't represented, but it's a pretty good overall indicator.> @JohnBarnes and, of course, there's no electoral college issue at play.  Industry polls do vary in intnet sometimes -- not just to show overall trends but to show differences in different regions/countries. So I think in those cases, you'd have to check that each region actually is adequately represented and not skewed in some way that puts in just 10 for one area and 900 for another.

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JohnBarnes
JohnBarnes
12/9/2016 2:46:12 PM
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Platinum
Re: at some time in the future, everyone is virtual!
Ariella, With a stratified sample the goal is to produce roughly equivalent confidence levels across all the strata being combined in the final result. This will often require drastically different sized samples that are not at all proportional to the populations of the strata. Your example is extreme, but yes, it can be correct and necessary to barely sample New York and sample like crazy in Delaware. Another way polling and voting are different is that one person one vote is not really a principle of polling. Polls are not supposed to be fair; they're supposed to be accurate. That requires a different rule: maximize information per added participant at the margin.

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batye
batye
12/10/2016 5:54:25 PM
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Platinum
Re: at some time in the future, everyone is virtual!
@Ariella interesting observation :) in my books all the polls numbers could look good but on site it could be other story... In my world before invest it better to see physical location and do due diligence on site :) - How I see it... but I'm looking from the point of security...

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mhhf1ve
mhhf1ve
12/14/2016 6:57:41 PM
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Platinum
Re: at some time in the future, everyone is virtual!
> "Polls are not reliable, Ghani explained, for a number of reasons."

Thanks for the extended reply, Ariella. Polling is indeed very tricky to do "right" -- and even when it's done with the best of methodologies, it's not necessarily predictive in the way you might want it to be -- especially for US presidential elections, due to the electoral college and other complicating factors.

But for industry polls, I'd like to maybe see more meta-analysis that looks back on how poll predictions stand up to reality. There have been all kinds of predictions for tech, and only Moore's Law seems to be true generally. The "trough of disillusionment" always seems to hit when marketing says it won't.....

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Ariella
Ariella
12/14/2016 8:16:38 PM
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Re: at some time in the future, everyone is virtual!
<But for industry polls, I'd like to maybe see more meta-analysis that looks back on how poll predictions stand up to reality. There have been all kinds of predictions for tech, and only Moore's Law seems to be true generally. The "trough of disillusionment" always seems to hit when marketing says it won't.....> @mhhf1ve I agree that there would be value in that. It seems to me that many can make all kinds of predictions with impunity because no one seems to come back and say, "You know, the numbers you said we'd see are very far from what happened."  They only do that with political predictions about winners because there is much less time elapsed between the call and the result. 

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JohnBarnes
JohnBarnes
12/8/2016 10:37:19 PM
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Platinum
Re: at some time in the future, everyone is virtual!
mhhf1ve,

The poll analyst community is in fact going more than a little nuts about the reasons for its failures, because so many of the proposed causes are turning out not to work when the data is reanalyzed. You might say that at the moment they are really out of ideas.

I really think it's going to turn out to be pure bien pensant -- a very large part of the population says what they think the polltaker wants to hear. The equivalent of that for products? Well, in the imaginations of the socially aspiring, do the "right people" like butter, superhero movies, exercise machines, or hip hop more or less than they are "supposed" to?

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batye
batye
12/10/2016 6:25:05 PM
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Platinum
Re: at some time in the future, everyone is virtual!
@mhhf1ve I could not agree more... as it could be easy manupalited to give need outcome on paper... but reality is other story... I keep reading - https://www.wired.com/2016/08/man-behind-trumps-bid-finally-take-digital-seriously/ 

but always ask what is really true story behind... we would never know... I'm not say good or bad... I'm only say real life is more interesting than expected...

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Mike Robuck
Mike Robuck
12/8/2016 9:59:57 AM
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Re: at some time in the future, everyone is virtual!
Which is the approach Heavy Reading took on a recent report that I used for this infographic. 

BTW, he used the same slide yesterday afternoon when he introduced another panel. 

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Itsmeshawn22
Itsmeshawn22
12/7/2016 6:49:12 PM
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Platinum
Study IDs Big Targets for VNFs
This article is really interesting about the VNF. The big plans for the VNF is awsome and showing the progress of what can come. The vendors have to make sure everything checks out by checking all the different scenarios which can be difficult. This article was helpful and I learned alot from it.

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dcawrey
dcawrey
12/7/2016 9:40:58 PM
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Platinum
Re: Study IDs Big Targets for VNFs
Yes, the logical choice for VNF is datacenters. Yet it could be argued you are going to find some really interesting use cases out on the edge. This could mean better performance and reliability - something that datacenters surely need "out" there. 

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