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elizabethv
elizabethv
9/27/2017 8:44:28 AM
User Rank
Platinum
Re: Skeptical
@afwriter - this is actually a big fear I have for the future. Mostly for my kids. What kinds of jobs can I try to prepare them for? The economy as we know it can't continue to exist with only two possibilities for jobs in the future. My brother currently lives in Japan, and he said they don't use any technology that would replace a person's job. So there are literally still businesses where people fill forms out by hand and file them in filing cabinets, just in the interest of not taking away a person's job. I almost think if automation comes to that, we may have to take a route like that just to continue to have a functioning society. There have literally been genocides when the younger generations were not able to find and maintain jobs to support their desire to have families. 

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elizabethv
elizabethv
9/27/2017 8:39:44 AM
User Rank
Platinum
Re: Skeptical
@JohnBarnes - I hear what you're saying, I just really struggle to believe it. Or maybe, accept it is the better word. I'm a control freak, so by nature, I need control. We're taking my kids on a railroad ride this weekend, and I'm freaked out enough about that. Much less an automated car. Accepting that an automated car could drive better than I can, I don't think I can do that.

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JohnBarnes
JohnBarnes
9/26/2017 10:47:38 PM
User Rank
Platinum
Re: Skeptical
Afwriter, In much less than 100 years I expect those will be automated too. Sentimentally I would like to think content creation would be last to go but rationally, field maintenance is more demanding of human improvisation and creativity.

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afwriter
afwriter
9/26/2017 10:44:08 PM
User Rank
Platinum
Re: Skeptical
Let's not forget that electricity is a great equalizer here. Machines may do a better job as long as they are powered up. I often worry that we will become too reliant on technology to do even menial tasks.

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afwriter
afwriter
9/26/2017 10:40:40 PM
User Rank
Platinum
Re: Skeptical
@JohnBarnes, I sometimes think that the only jobs that will be left in 100 years are content creation and machine maintenance. 

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JohnBarnes
JohnBarnes
9/26/2017 6:32:56 PM
User Rank
Platinum
Re: Skeptical
ElizabethV,

And yet again ...

"No matter how many algorithms we can come up with to feed it."

Fewer and fewer people are writing algorithms anymore, because machines write better ones. Nor are the machine algorithms just improvements on originally human ones; the high level chess and Go playing software, for example, which now reliably beats any human player, plays by techniques and tactics that are literally too big and sophisticated to fit inside a human mind. Except for a very brief interval (which wouldn't have to happen if human investors weren't insisting on too-quick deployment) human driven cars will always drive better than the best human drivers, and yes, I mean specifically they will make better choices and interpret small clues more accurately; your kid will be much safer chasing a puppy into traffic once all the drivers are robots even if the robots are champion rally car and stunt drivers with Ph.D's in moral philosophy.  (Admittedly, I'd probably rather have a beer with those drivers, but mainly because there'd at least be some hope I could come up to their level).

Things are in the saddle, and ride mankind.  Mankind just isn't fully saddlebroken and equipped with enough riders yet to realize it.

And a damn good thing, too, because the human record of self-administration is one long tragifarce of folly and blunder.

 

 

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DHagar
DHagar
9/26/2017 6:25:41 PM
User Rank
Platinum
Re: Skeptical
@JohnBarnes, absolutely true!  It is a total discovery of the compounding affects and interactions on the processes, people, economics, etc.  It produces its own "unintended" consequences that we have to digest and begin to understand. 

Unpredictable, yes, but the ability to adapt and apply in new and improved ways is also the new opportunity, if we truly want to develop value to all.

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JohnBarnes
JohnBarnes
9/26/2017 6:22:34 PM
User Rank
Platinum
Re: Skeptical
afwriter,

I think it's all right to be more than a little anti-automation. If one worker plus the newly automated system components can do the work of fifty workers -- and perhaps get paid what three of them used to get paid -- that's great news for the guy with the new job. It's also a disaster for the other 49, accompanied by a declaration that their pain does not matter.

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JohnBarnes
JohnBarnes
9/26/2017 6:18:54 PM
User Rank
Platinum
Re: Skeptical
DHagar,

And yet again, "the street finds its own uses for technology." Paypal started as a way to unclog one very jammed up part of ecommerce, but swiftly (at least in terms of past economic history) gave birth to eBay (which spawned its own doom in the form of Craigslist), Uber, Airbnb, and how many others? It's just about impossible to imagine teaching cultural studies anymore without using YouTube, which started out as a way for people to share home videos. The automation-person interface created to do one job is soon doing jobs that no one imagined when it was created.

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DHagar
DHagar
9/26/2017 5:15:21 PM
User Rank
Platinum
Re: Skeptical
@elizabethv, I agree that we do not need to accept reducing humans to robotic roles to make way for automation.  We are only flipping the coin from one advantage to another when we do that.  The key value is to learn to better utilize the capabilities of both and better organize jobs and processes to accomplish that.

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