Comments
clrmoney
1/9/2018 9:10:05 AM
User Rank Platinum
5G Heats Up
5G is popular here because it's new and what they have to offer for businesses and customers with new services etc. I'm not sure if they have fully advanced or expanded overseas but I'm sure it will be a success.
srufolo1
1/9/2018 10:29:10 AM
User Rank Platinum
Re: 5G Heats Up
There is always hype before a major technology is released. 5G is no different. It definitely is a marketing ploy, but it's necessary to get things moving.
mhhf1ve
1/9/2018 2:19:51 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: 5G Heats Up
> "But, they won't be able to get it in the US even by the end of the year..."
The 5G devices for consumers aren't even expected to arrive before 2019, no? So.. yah, the groundwork is being laid, but we're not actually going to see widespread adoption until 2020 at the earliest.
DHagar
1/9/2018 5:17:14 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: 5G Heats Up
@mhhf1ve, I am surprised at the delays as well. But I believe Sarah's prediction that it will first be available in international markets. I had heard that it might be utilized by South Korea with the upcoming February Olympics.
I am surprised that the US is that much behind and lagging. I wonder who will give us the breakthrough capability in the US that 5G promises?
mhhf1ve
1/9/2018 9:08:27 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: 5G Heats Up
> "I wonder who will give us the breakthrough capability in the US that 5G promises?"
Just like 4G.. I think no one will remember who was first, but users will just know which provider serves them best -- because there's no way any single provider will be able to serve the whole country at equal quality.
DHagar
1/10/2018 6:18:18 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: 5G Heats Up
@mhhf1ve, well said! But the environment that supports that will truly gain the edge - whether US, developing countries, and/or other leaders. It will be a transformative environment involving both public and private entities.
mhhf1ve
1/10/2018 7:51:25 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: 5G Heats Up
The wide variance of 5G technologies really makes me wonder how a unified standard will even happen. The "GSM vs CDMA" world we live in is simple -- compared to the breadth of spectrum that 5G will use. I thought we were moving toward wireless unification when Apple released an iPhone that could be used on both AT&T and Verizon. But it looks like that trend is dead, and we'll probably see more and more phones that, even unlocked, won't work on different networks.
DHagar
1/11/2018 5:21:38 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: 5G Heats Up
@mhhf1ve, great analysis!. What I believe may evolve is less a descriptive standard than an interoperable one. If they don't build bridges with their network they will be limited in being able to operate only as an independent island.
The potential markets with 5G, like the development of the net, open up too many opportunities to be limited.
JohnBarnes
1/17/2018 2:27:47 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: 5G Heats Up
DHagar, mhhf1ve,
But as with its big economic cousin, free trade, any kind of open systems or multiple compatability is endorsed more by after-the-fact propaganda than by abstract theory. When the cost of customers freely switching out strongly exceeds the value of customers freely switching in, a firm's engineers will discover all sorts of reasons why locked-in proprietary systems (hardware, software, any old -ware) are the "obvious, natural" way to go; when it's the other way 'round, very shortly afterward "everyone knows" that barriers, switching costs, and incompatabilities are expensive and obsolete. It's clear that there's a basis for a system that has much better technical/engineering numbers than 4G, unclear as yet whether the way to make money off this is to have 5G freely, widely, conveniently available to everyone (and make money on volume, charging the many consumers who don't really need it a small surcharge each to cover the cost of providing to those who need it desperately), or to create elite islands of 5G (and flog the daylights out of the few users who really have to have it to remain competitive). As soon as there's enough of an observation base, the preference for open v. proprietary will be settled, established, obvious common sense.
DHagar
1/17/2018 7:03:15 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: 5G Heats Up
@JohnBarnes, great points on the application, pricing, and value. Absolutely, it may require new pricing and access models, based on the "systems" and customer value.
If we look back at history, it appears that most fundamental technology changes have resulted in new models and/or hybrid systems that better fit the new technology. I would doubt that our current existing bundles, packages, models, and pricing will stand the "test of time" in the new 5G world.
JohnBarnes
1/18/2018 2:44:08 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: 5G Heats Up
DHagar,
There's an interesting cross-pressure which has been developing ever since computers started being a major component of communication (including digital voice and video): competitive advantage for acquiring and keeping customers goes to whoever can sell the smallest chunks a la carte (whether it's providing only the services, or only the entertainment programs, only the bandwidth, only the data, etc etc etc that the customer needs). Yet max revenue and surest/fastest growth path goes to whoever can deliver to the customer the best mix of capabilities, including ones the customer isn't yet aware of needing but will quickly be unable to live without. It seems like the kind of problem that markets will solve eventually, but what that solution will be and the exact pathway for getting there are still going to come as surprises.
Re: 5G Heats Up
@JohnBarnes: I am surprised that you overlooked the role of consulting firms in bringing together the technologies that are missed by specialists.
JohnBarnes
1/18/2018 3:01:41 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: 5G Heats Up
Kishore,
Now that you mention it, I am surprised that I overlooked that, also. Certainly consulting firms will be a major player in getting us to a system of markets that work for 5G; as you say, somebody's got to hook the pieces together.
DHagar
1/18/2018 5:11:27 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: 5G Heats Up
@JohnBarnes, great analysis. Yes, I believe it may evolve in different forms that will fit the fail fast concept. We will test, get response, adapt, and then reapply in rapid development cycles before production and distribution. That may result in more interaction and involvement of cosumers and result in better products and services?
JohnBarnes
1/18/2018 7:34:44 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: 5G Heats Up
DHagar,
I think that’s by far the most likely way for things to go. I wonder, though, if fail fast is a cause of rapid tech development or a consequence of it? I suppose it can also be both.
DHagar
1/19/2018 4:30:14 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: 5G Heats Up
@JohnBarnes, excellent question! I believe it is because of technology - because the pace and speed of deliverables has accelerated. As a result of that, we see the results much sooner and can connect the dots so that we learn more?
I think you are correct.
dlr5288
1/31/2018 7:38:17 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: 5G Heats Up
Very true. When 5G is completed I believe it’ll be hard for new models to keep up with it completely. If it’s going to be advanced as we are all thinking it will be..
DHagar
1/31/2018 7:43:55 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: 5G Heats Up
@dir5288, especially if we learn to adapt it to its best advantage!
dlr5288
2/27/2018 12:23:23 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: 5G Heats Up
Exactly! And I don’t think it’ll be difficult to adapt. As were always adapting to something new!
DHagar
2/27/2018 5:57:24 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: 5G Heats Up
@dir5288, at least one hopes we are getting the "hang" of it.
I think that is our future, don't you?
dlr5288
2/28/2018 11:35:27 AM
User Rank Platinum
Re: 5G Heats Up
Definitely! Continually adapting to new advances technologies. I, for one, am completely used to having to adapt. We do it so frequently a lot of the time it goes unnoticed.
DHagar
2/28/2018 7:12:06 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: 5G Heats Up
@dir5288, part of life in the "fast lane" today! Yes, the wheels keep spinning - hopefully we are moving forward - not just in circles!
dlr5288
3/27/2018 12:12:40 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: 5G Heats Up
That’s very true! I think most of the time we don’t really know whether we’re moving forward or hopelessly getting lost. It’s important to have faith in the people leading us in the new direction of technology.
DHagar
3/27/2018 6:36:33 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: 5G Heats Up
@dir5288, well said! Leadership is increasingly becoming a precious commodity and will increasingly distinguish those organizations who succeed long-term versus those that just copy.
In reality, leadership today is not following as much as making challenging decisions that strengthen the market positions of companies and position them with the best opportunities for all stakeholders. Those organizations are the sustainable ones!
dlr5288
3/28/2018 7:55:07 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: 5G Heats Up
I agree! It’s important to have good leaders today. To be able to help us all move into a more digital world. Without letting important things getting left behind.
DHagar
3/29/2018 7:03:49 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: 5G Heats Up
@dir5288, and leadership will set up the capabilities to apply technology and buiild the new systems to truly transform how we operate.
dlr5288
4/30/2018 12:25:43 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: 5G Heats Up
Exactly! There’s a lot of pressure on our future leaders and how the world will work once they’re done leading our technology.
DHagar
4/30/2018 6:16:15 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: 5G Heats Up
@dir5288, that is the exciting part is the unknown future. It is less about what we have controlled and more now about what we can create and develop.
elizabethv
1/11/2018 9:20:37 AM
User Rank Platinum
Re: 5G Heats Up
@mhhf1ve - That's a great assessment. I certainly don't remember who rolled 4G out well. But I would think, rolling out a network that isn't completely planned out and ready to run seemlessly would probably really hurt their future expansion more than being second or third in the race will.
mhhf1ve
1/11/2018 12:50:10 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: 5G Heats Up
> "I certainly don't remember who rolled 4G out well."
Well, from some reports I've seen -- the US was regarded as the first major country to roll out 4G LTE, ahead of Europe and some other countries on the lead edge in Asia. The wireless industry touts that the early 4G rollout somehow kept the US in the lead economically. But there are some obvious arguments against that idea. Still, the bragging rights of a country getting to be the first to adopt some next generation network must have *some* value, right? I just don't know if that kind of prestige works so well when it comes to individual ISPs so much when customers don't usually care about the network's reputation as much as how well it works for their particular needs.
DHagar
1/9/2018 5:14:31 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: 5G Heats Up
@srufolo1 - but I think there is more behind the 5G on this one - it really is transforming technology if and when it is deployed properly. I am waiting for AT&T, et al, to truly deliver a new capability that takes this far beyond marketing. But you are absolutely correct, the hype has begun - we will have to see if it lives up to it?
afwriter
1/10/2018 12:17:27 AM
User Rank Platinum
Re: 5G Heats Up
I don't think that there is much doubt it will live up to the hype, but we will all forget these comments long before we see the full benefits of 5G. I think it is important to note your distinction of "when it is deployed properly," because I believe that this won't be a seamless transition.
DHagar
1/10/2018 6:20:17 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: 5G Heats Up
@afwriter, good point! It will not be without the fail fast experience where we apply, learn, improve and reapply until we learn what truly works.
srufolo1
1/10/2018 10:03:00 AM
User Rank Platinum
Re: 5G Heats Up
@DHagar Yes, hype or "buzz" as we used to call it. AT&T claims it will be the first roll out 5G, but as the article states, AT&T does not have enough spectrum on hand to do so by this year as it claims. So Maybe T-Mobile US will beat it to the punch. Yes, we will have to wait and see how this all shakes out.
mhhf1ve
1/10/2018 3:57:36 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: 5G Heats Up
Given that 5G standards are even fully agreed upon, it will be hard to say what kind of 5G connections will be "first" and useful. Perhaps some users will really latch into the point to point wireless connections to get wireless broadband to stationary homes.
DHagar
1/10/2018 6:22:51 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: 5G Heats Up
@srufolo1 - good assessment. At least they are recognizing the "new" requirements that have to be added to support this capability. That is valuable in and of itself. Whoever puts together the whole package will become one of the leaders - but that truly is a learning curve.
elizabethv
1/11/2018 9:24:12 AM
User Rank Platinum
Re: 5G Heats Up
@DHagar - Good point, being first will at best put the network ahead of the others. Though I wouldn't be surprised if it went almost completely unnoticed either. Unless it's rollled out with a lot of marketing and hype. But even that they have to be cautious with, because they can't roll out and then not keep marketing promises.
DHagar
1/11/2018 5:24:52 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: 5G Heats Up
@elizabethv, very true. It will require higher order marketing skills.
Peter Drucker said true market professionals are those who can sell refrigerators to eskimos - to keep the food from freezing! So solving the customers' problems may be the key?
elizabethv
1/12/2018 9:25:59 AM
User Rank Platinum
Re: 5G Heats Up
@DHagar - Solving the customers problems will definitely go a long way in ensuring a successful 5G roll out. There is already anticipation, so really getting interest may not be a problem. My big fear, is that like with most tech, there will be bugs initially. And if there are too many bugs it might sink the ship before it ever reaches open water. I'm just glad it's not my job.
DHagar
1/12/2018 5:19:16 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: 5G Heats Up
@elizabethv - you are definitely right about that. That is where we are going to have to learn to better deploy access and use of technology. When it is changing so rapidly our job is to deliver better solutions not just our vision of new (ie better) technology.
This represents the next wave through services and user value.
elizabethv
1/17/2018 8:38:10 AM
User Rank Platinum
Re: 5G Heats Up
@DHagar - Exactly, if the development is truly focused on customer wants and needs it will even work to allow customers to be more willing to overlook bugs. I'm sure they'd still want them fixed or addressed, but they'd still appreciate the technology.
DHagar
1/17/2018 6:55:36 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: 5G Heats Up
@elizabethv, well stated! When they can see a path to progress they at least feel that they are gaining and learning and/or moving forward. Increasingly, as well, technology value will be from the user's perspective.
elizabethv
1/11/2018 9:12:32 AM
User Rank Platinum
AT&T
I have to wonder if AT&T isn't dealing with financial hardships they're trying desperately to save the company from. They seem to have a hand in every cookie jar and are over-eager to compete on every playing field. I would think claiming you'll have something before you actually will, in the end will hurt more than it helps. I can't be the only person thinking AT&T is starting to act like a neglected 4 year-old.
afwriter
1/11/2018 4:13:36 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: AT&T
I can't speak to their financial situation other than the fact that I send them a sizable check every month. I think in this situation AT&T is trying to position themselves as the top telco in the United States which means being the first, being the loudest, and like a neglected 4-year-old, tugging on our collective pant legs until we at least acknowledge they are in the room.
batye
1/12/2018 7:22:05 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: AT&T
@afwriter interesting point... I see our local telecom Bell in Canada trying to do almost the same as AT&T but with fiber... I think everyone this days copy each other and using the same playbook...
JohnBarnes
1/17/2018 2:44:33 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: AT&T
batye,
The same playbook or just the same goal? There's a simple, obvious cost: it's going to be very expensive and perhaps fatal to get left behind once the 4G --> 5G transition really gets underway. The benefits of being first, or at least early, are not nearly as well established, but there are many good reasons to believe they will be substantial. So even if a company doesn't want to take the plunge into 5G right now, they still want to be in a state of extreme readiness and standing near the starting line.
Seems to me the situation is somewhat analogous to the role railroad timetables are supposed to have played in starting the First World War; after a while so many forces are so ready and so piled up along the frontier that you have to move them across the border just to reduce the congestion and allow more buildup. Or maybe even more to the Oklahoma Land Rushes, where a family could only get prepared to a high degree and stay by the border for a limited time, and at the end of it, they could go home broke with nothing, or they could cross the line, law or no law, and trigger a stampede of other land-hungry settlers afraid of losing out. (There's a reason Oklahomans are called "Sooners" -- it's politer than "Desperate Aggressive Squatters!")
Right now we're collectively building up along the frontier between 4G and 5G. Sooner or later some company is going to be in the "go or lose the chance to go" position, and almost any business in a tech industry will go, not slink home with nothing to show the investors. Once a few of them start to go, they'll all go.
I think. The game theory looks similar, but who knows what the game will actually be?
DHagar
1/17/2018 6:58:33 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: AT&T
@JohnBarnes, great analogy in your response to Batye.
I agree there is measured judgment involved in figuring out when to abandon the past, transition to the new and create new value in the new invested environment.
It truly is a process of "discovery-driven" planning. An entirely new game and one where we learn and add knowledge each step of the way.
elizabethv
1/23/2018 8:46:18 AM
User Rank Platinum
Re: AT&T
@DHagar - "It truly is a process of "discovery-driven" planning. An entirely new game and one where we learn and add knowledge each step of the way."
I really like what you described here. I think this will be critical for companies that aren't first into the 5G game. They don't have to be first to do a good job that consumers will appreciate.
DHagar
1/23/2018 4:40:40 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: AT&T
@elizabethv, thanks! Very true what you are saying. The ability to "apply" the new technology in meaningful ways to the consumer will generate sales and develop new markets.
The definition of "quality" is solving the customer's problems.
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