Comments
clrmoney
1/17/2018 7:56:02 AM
User Rank Platinum
Managing 5G Multi-Cloud
Well multi means many which means many things to do and to offer so this multi cloud for 5G will be a lot to handle but I'm sure it can be done for the customers and their business so that they will have more revenue mainly automated for years to come.
dlr5288
1/31/2018 12:45:31 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: Managing 5G Multi-Cloud
It’s exciting to see what will happen with 5G. No doubt there will be many changes and advancements with it. It could be a lot to handle but also important moving into the future.
afwriter
1/17/2018 4:18:57 PM
User Rank Platinum
Complexity
It sounds like this is going to be something that plays out over a decade or more. I wonder if this complexity will create jobs to help at different layers over the next few years.
Re: Complexity
@afwriter:
I would assume so. Looking at all moving parts and ambiguities around i wouldn't anticipate anything quick. It surely will be sometime for things to start working. Since there are multiple areas invoved, there is a good potential fot creation of jobs in those areas.
Ariella
1/25/2018 5:40:17 PM
User Rank Author
Re: Complexity
I would think that there may be new jobs created for people with the skills to manage the new technololgy. Other jobs likelys will be displaced, but I'd hope, that on balance, we would not lose more than we gain on the job front.
Re: Complexity
Very true. As long as we hit the balance we are good in terms of the direction we are heading to.
Ariella
1/28/2018 5:19:52 PM
User Rank Author
Re: Complexity
After I posted that comment, I came across a fascinating MIT Technology Review article on the various projections for job gains and losses anticipated to occur over the next few years.
Predicted Jobs Automation Will Create and Destroy
| When | Where | Jobs
Destroyed | Jobs Created | Predictor |
|---|
| 2016 |
worldwide |
|
900,000 to 1,500,000 |
Metra Martech |
| 2018 |
US jobs |
13,852,530 |
3,078,340 |
Forrester |
| 2020 |
worldwide |
|
1,000,000-2,000,000 |
Metra Martech |
| 2020 |
worldwide |
1,800,000 |
2,300,000 |
Gartner |
| 2020 |
sampling of 15 countries |
7,100,000 |
2,000,000 |
World Economic Forum (WEF) |
| 2021 |
worldwide |
|
1,900,000-3,500,000 |
The International Federation of Robotics |
| 2021 |
US jobs |
9,108,900 |
|
Forrester |
| 2022 |
worldwide |
1,000,000,000 |
|
Thomas Frey |
| 2025 |
US jobs |
24,186,240 |
13,604,760 |
Forrester |
| 2025 |
US jobs |
3,400,000 |
|
ScienceAlert |
| 2027 |
US jobs |
24,700,000 |
14,900,000 |
Forrester |
| 2030 |
worldwide |
2,000,000,000 |
|
Thomas Frey |
| 2030 |
worldwide |
400,000,000-800,000,000 |
|
McKinsey |
| 2030 |
US jobs |
58,164,320 |
|
PWC |
| 2033 |
US jobs |
67,876,460 |
|
Oxford University |
| 2035 |
US jobs |
80,000,000 |
|
Bank of England |
| 2035 |
UK jobs |
15,000,000 |
|
Bank of England |
| No Date |
US jobs |
13,594,320 |
|
OECD |
| No Date |
UK jobs |
13,700,000 |
|
IPPR |
As you can see, no one agrees. Predictions range from optimistic to devastating, differing by tens of millions of jobs even when comparing similar time frames. We also found numerous predictions focused on losses in one industry, and many that were the result of a single technology, like autonomous vehicles.
afwriter
1/28/2018 10:43:43 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: Complexity
Thank you for sharing, this is incredibly interesting and something that I think deserves a deeper dive. I am especially interested in the numbers between 2027 and 2030.
Ariella
1/29/2018 11:01:56 AM
User Rank Author
Re: Complexity
@afwriter I find it interesting on so many levels, including the fact that so many diverse projections can be based on what has to be basically the same body of data. That points out to me that even those presenting their views as unbiased analytics put some spin on things.
afwriter
1/30/2018 10:15:58 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: Complexity
At least the predictions start now and not 5 -10 years from now like most tech prognosticators like to do.
Re: Complexity
First i would like to thank @Ariella for sharing very interesting stats. That is so informative.
@afwriter:
Let me second you about the trends starting 2027 thru 2030. It is concerning to see numbers during that timeframe.
freehe
2/24/2018 11:14:43 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: Complexity
This confirms what I have been saying. Many people will become unemployed as companies increase their use of technology including 5G. Companies will retrain some employees but I don't if companies will spend money to retrain all employees whose jobs will be eliminated. Your statistics are very alarming. It makes me sad that so many employees will lose their jobs.
Ariella
2/25/2018 9:52:00 AM
User Rank Author
Re: Complexity
@freehe I agree that the inevitable result is loss of jobs, though what the net loss will be is very much in dispute. On January 25, MIT Technology Review published this: https://www.technologyreview.com/s/610005/every-study-we-could-find-on-what-automation-will-do-to-jobs-in-one-chart/:
As you can see, no one agrees. Predictions range from optimistic to devastating, differing by tens of millions of jobs even when comparing similar time frames. We also found numerous predictions focused on losses in one industry, and many that were the result of a single technology, like autonomous vehicles.
Of course, not all statistics are created equal. The most commonly cited numbers were from three places: a 2013 Oxford study that said 47 percent of US jobs will be automated in the next few decades, an OECD study suggesting that 9 percent of jobs in the organization's 21 member countries are automatable, and a McKinsey report from last year that said 400 million to 800 million jobs worldwide could be automated by 2030.
In short, although these predictions are made by dozens of global experts in economics and technology, no one seems to be on the same page. There is really only one meaningful conclusion: we have no idea how many jobs will actually be lost to the march of technological progress.
mpouraryan
2/25/2018 1:25:51 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: Complexity
The reality cannot be disputed despite th reservations being expressed by MIT. There needs to be the conversation now and saying "we don't know" is frankly irresponsible.
Ariella
2/25/2018 2:12:01 PM
User Rank Author
Re: Complexity
@mpouraryan Certainly, though it seems pretty clear to me that some paint a rosier outlook than others because of their own vested intersts. You would need someone who is completed disinterested (not uninterested) to assess objectively and come up with a plan based on the likeliest outcome.
Ariella
2/25/2018 2:12:02 PM
User Rank Author
Re: Complexity
@mpouraryan Certainly, though it seems pretty clear to me that some paint a rosier outlook than others because of their own vested intersts. You would need someone who is completed disinterested (not uninterested) to assess objectively and come up with a plan based on the likeliest outcome.
mpouraryan
2/25/2018 2:25:43 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: Complexity
The key is to read wildy and then make our own judgement. What is clear is that Automation is here to stay--and everyone is impacted. The debate has to happen now and the idea that "no one knows" is not the right outlook to embrace!!!
Onward to March!!
freehe
2/24/2018 11:15:05 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: Complexity
@Ariella, This will have a huge impact on the ecoonomy and will result in an increase in unemployment and underemployment, cause an increase in social services and unemployment compensation, increase short sales and foreclosures.
freehe
2/24/2018 11:18:04 PM
User Rank Platinum
5G and Jobs
I agree that the key is to strike a balance but I doubt most companies will be able to achieve that. As of now Amazon has not. They have only retrained 40% of the employees whose jobs were eliminated. Amazon uses 100,000 robots. I forsee that this will be a trend. What will happen to the employees who are laid off?
dlr5288
2/28/2018 5:25:18 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: 5G and Jobs
Well said. It is a scary thought too. Now so many people are being put out of a job because of “robots” or electronics. When will it end? Or will all people eventually be left behind?
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