Comments
Ariella
4/8/2018 10:24:38 PM
User Rank Author
Re: Automation Takes Over Jobs
MIT Technology Review recently ran an article called "Tech companies should stop pretending AI won't destroy jobs"
It will soon be obvious that half of our job tasks can be done better at almost no cost by AI and robots. This will be the fastest transition humankind has experienced, and we're not ready for it.
Not everyone agrees with my view. Some people argue that it will take longer than we think before jobs disappear, since many jobs will be only partially replaced, and companies will try to redeploy those displaced internally. But even if true, that won't stop the inevitable. Others remind us that every technology revolution has created new jobs as it displaced old ones. But it's dangerous to assume this will be the case again.
Then there are the symbiotic optimists, who think that AI combined with humans should be better than either one alone. This will be true for certain professions—doctors, lawyers—but most jobs won't fall in that category. Instead they are routine, single-domain jobs where AI excels over the human by a large margin.
While that outlook is fairly gloomy, the writer says that rather than despair, we should look the situation square in the eye and be proactive:
These changes are coming, and we need to tell the truth and the whole truth. We need to find the jobs that AI can't do and train people to do them. We need to reinvent education. These will be the best of times and the worst of times. If we act rationally and quickly, we can bask in what's best rather than wallow in what's worst.
mhhf1ve
4/9/2018 12:26:22 AM
User Rank Platinum
Re: Automation Takes Over Jobs
I'm not so sure that Elon Musk isn't right to worry. If we don't at least think about the consequences of super-human AI, then we might be surprised-- unpleasantly if the worst case scenario (or even just a sorta bad scenario happens) in the future. The "flash crash" of the stock market in 2010 should make us all a bit concerned that bots control too much of our economy already.
mhhf1ve
4/9/2018 12:33:26 AM
User Rank Platinum
Re: Automation Takes Over Jobs
The worry *I* have about advanced AI is the growing and accelerating wealth gap. The people who own the robots and factories will be positioned nicely to profit handsomely while workers and wage earners will become increasingly obsolete in the workplace. How will society adapt to this? Will basic income schemes really be able to support society? Will people have to become artists and creative writers to ever hope to add value to the world?
Ariella
4/9/2018 11:30:51 AM
User Rank Author
Re: Automation Takes Over Jobs
@mhhf1ve I'm not a fan of basic income schemes. First of all, the amounts proposed are about $1K a month, which would not even cover housing costs in the NYC area, never mind other life necessities. Secondly, from a psychological perspective, I think it pushes people into a mindset that saps the feeling of accomplishment one gets from earning one's way. Thirdly, there is no way that approach is economically feasible beyond the very short term in very limited circumstances.
mhhf1ve
4/9/2018 1:08:20 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: Automation Takes Over Jobs
Definitely basic income schemes are not for everyone... But I think it might be useful for at least *some* people? I wonder if there are any studies of "trust fund kids" who are already living a basic income lifestyle of sorts? Conceivably, there could be some kind of trust that funded the lives of a population of people indefiintely -- and perhaps that might be even more practical with advanced AI where the AI does all the "work" to earn money (day trading or tirelessly manufacturing) and people live off the fruit of a robot's labor....
Obviously, there are drawbacks to an entire society built on some kind of basic income scheme (ahem, see Communism), but pure Capitalism has its faults, too. Perhaps we need some hybrid system of capitalism and a widespread lottery system for a basic income. Okay, that sounds like a dystopian short story of the future, but... the robots *are* coming, after all.
Ariella
4/9/2018 1:28:59 PM
User Rank Author
Re: Automation Takes Over Jobs
@mhhf1ve I admit to not know anyone with a trust fund personally. But my impression is that they would be living off way more than a $12K a year, probably more like $120K a year. What I do know are people who have their parents buy their houses for them free and clear and then buy their furniture for them and their carpeting, etc, you get the picture. And these people still manage to not save money from their jobs and claim not to have enough to even fix their cars unless their parents shell out yet more money for them. That's the problem of the "someone else is taking care of me" mindset; you never have to make it on your own, so you don't. And you also never have the pride of a full grownup -- even into middle age.
Ariella
4/9/2018 1:33:45 PM
User Rank Author
Re: Automation Takes Over Jobs
@mhhf1ve Also people derive a great deal of their identity from the work they do. Sitting idle while a robot does all your work for you does not lead to a fulfilling life. We don't just live for pleasure but for self-actualization and meaning. So unless the people freed of work find some course of study or volunteer outlets that will add meaning to their lives and allow them to use their abilities for good, they are likely to grow bored and depressed, possibly even to start experimenting with illegal substances or dangerous behavior just to break up the tedium of their lives.
As for the the other side of just getting by on the dole, I just saw this quote
mhhf1ve
4/9/2018 1:41:33 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: Automation Takes Over Jobs
The "pride of a full grownup" is an interesting concept. I'm not so sure who really gets to claim that award. Everyone needs help, sometimes serious help, from time to time -- unless you're really really lucky or somehow incredibly talented. And even then, incredibly talented people need help. Do you only get to claim your "adulting badge" if you pulled yourself up by your own bootstraps?
There was a recent simulation that demonstrated that luck might be a greater factor than talent in achieving some success....
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/610395/if-youre-so-smart-why-arent-you-rich-turns-out-its-just-chance/
Ariella
4/9/2018 3:25:16 PM
User Rank Author
Re: Automation Takes Over Jobs
@mhhf1ve Let me put it to you this way: it's the differnece between giving the man a fish and teaching him to fish. Sure, you can give him the fish so that he's not starving, and you should. But you also have to teach him to fish for himself. If you fail to do the equivalent of that, you're keeping him in depedent mode. Then you can feel the gratification of the person who bestows the fish on the poor man, and he is ever after in the position of the one who needs to ask for help. Now some parents seem to get addicted to feeling needed and so they never want their children to be truly independent. I don't consider that a healthy situation for either side, and this psychology article concurs.
I remember a young mother once commenting on her toddler son's having learned to walk and so "he doesn't need me any more." Of course, that's absurd, but some people like to have complete dependence because feeling needed is very gratifying. But when bringing up children, the goal should not be to keep in the nest where you feed them ever after but have them grow strong enough to fly off on their own. That's the fulfilling life of a grownup. Will bumps occur along the way? Likely yes, but resilient people will view asking for help as a temporary solution -- not a long term life plan.
Ariella
4/9/2018 3:46:52 PM
User Rank Author
Re: Automation Takes Over Jobs
@mhhf1ve Also I'm not talking about becoming a major success like the wonderkids in the tech world who managed to have the right idea at the right time for it to take off spectacularly. I'm merely talking about being able to earn an income that covers your living expenses. It all goes back to the pride a kid feels when she can tie her own shoes or prepare her own lunch. from https://kidshealth.org/en/parents/self-esteem.html
Self-esteem is the result of experiences that help a child feel capable, effective, and accepted.
- When kids learn to do things for themselves and feel proud of what they can do, they feel capable.
- Children feel effective when they see that good things come from efforts like trying hard, getting close to a goal, or making progress.
Replace all that with a guaranteed income and no outlet for meaningful use of skills, then a person feel neither capable nor effective.
|
|
Italy's 5G auction could exceed a government target of raising €2.5 billion ($2.9 billion) after attracting interest from companies outside the mobile market.
The emerging-markets operator is focusing on the humdrum business of connectivity and keeping quiet about some of its ill-fated 'digitalization' efforts.
Three UK has picked Huawei over existing radio access network suppliers Nokia and Samsung to build its 5G network.
Vendor says that it's its biggest 5G deal to date.
Verizon skates where the puck is going by waiting for standards-based 5G devices to launch its mobile service in 2019.
Orange has been one of the leading proponents of SDN and NFV. In this Telco Transformation radio show, Orange's John Isch provides some perspective on his company's NFV/SDN journey.
10/16/2017
Huawei Network Transformation Seminar
The adoption of virtualization technology and cloud architectures by telecom network operators is now well underway but there is still a long way to go before the transition to an era of Network Functions Cloudification (NFC) is complete.
The Small Cell Forum's CEO Sue Monahan says that small cells will be crucial for indoor 5G coverage, but challenges around business models, siting ...
People, strategy, a strong technology roadmap and new business processes are the key underpinnings of Telstra's digital transformation, COO Robyn ...
Eric Bozich, vice president of products and marketing at CenturyLink, talks about the challenges and opportunities of integrating Level 3 into ...
Epsilon's Mark Daley, director of digital strategy and business development, talks about digital transformation from a wholesale service provider ...
Bill Walker, CenturyLink's director of network architecture, shares his insights on why training isn't enough for IT employees and traditional ...
All Videos
|
On-the-Air Thursdays Digital Audio
Special Huawei Video
Tweet This