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clrmoney
clrmoney
4/5/2018 10:44:38 AM
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Platinum
Automation Takes Over Jobs
I absolutely believed that automation is helpful but it can also be a problem because they will be taking all the jobs that people need to provide a lifestyle or feed their families but I like automation and I think it makes things easier with technology with companies that use it for products and services.

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mpouraryan
mpouraryan
4/5/2018 7:41:52 PM
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Platinum
Re: Automation Takes Over Jobs
Some "Food 4 thought" to spruce up the deliberations:

 


Rehiring humansWhile manufacturers continue to use robots to automate processes and boost efficiencies, companies such as Toyota are placing human workers at the forefront of their automation efforts.
 

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mhhf1ve
mhhf1ve
4/6/2018 5:58:09 PM
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Re: Automation Takes Over Jobs
The other example given for "automation doesn't necessarily mean fewer jobs" is the manual telephone switching operator job (a person who used to physically connect phone calls) to the current giant telecom companies today. So specific jobs were lost, but the total number of employees increased as companies were able to grow their overall business. 

Now.. this coming new kind of automation might not be the same -- if AI can do things better than humans BUT companies don't actually grow their businesses as a result. 

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mpouraryan
mpouraryan
4/6/2018 6:53:27 PM
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Re: Automation Takes Over Jobs
The key takeaway, as I see it, is this:  We're not ready--and to me it is tragic.   We need to be able to create the future.   I wonder if this is understood!!

 

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mhhf1ve
mhhf1ve
4/6/2018 8:26:07 PM
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Platinum
Re: Automation Takes Over Jobs
There is always a fear of the unknown. And with hyper-automation, there are plenty of uncertainties for the future. If AI gets super-human intellegence, perhaps we'll all be obsolete? :P

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mpouraryan
mpouraryan
4/6/2018 8:31:04 PM
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Re: Automation Takes Over Jobs
Elon Musk has underscored this as such as we should be aware of this profound challenge before us.

Onward to the weekend.

 

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mhhf1ve
mhhf1ve
4/6/2018 10:09:14 PM
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Re: Automation Takes Over Jobs
Elon Musk is a true visionary-- but let's hope his pessimistic view of AI doesn't come true. Perhaps we'll thank him for supporting the efforts to create "good AI" to counter the possible neutral to malicious AI that could threaten our very existence.

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mpouraryan
mpouraryan
4/6/2018 10:11:26 PM
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Re: Automation Takes Over Jobs
Remember we have to do more than hope--the essence of transformation is about facing the worst and working to overcome it--with the same set of vision and commitment to leave things better than we found it.

 

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Ariella
Ariella
4/8/2018 6:48:37 PM
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Author
Re: Automation Takes Over Jobs
@mhhf1ve I don't quite buy the nightmare scenarios he envisioned for AI (something I wrote about here). But I do buy the fact that likely more jobs will disappear than will be created in terms of total numbe of openings for people, particularly those who are not specifically and highly skilled.

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vnewman
vnewman
4/8/2018 9:54:59 PM
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Platinum
Re: Automation Takes Over Jobs
It appears that we - as humans - need to focus on skills that make us human to be gainfully employable. Anything a machine, robot, or a computer can do - they will do.

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Ariella
Ariella
4/8/2018 10:24:38 PM
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Re: Automation Takes Over Jobs
MIT Technology Review recently ran an article called "Tech companies should stop pretending AI won't destroy jobs"

It will soon be obvious that half of our job tasks can be done better at almost no cost by AI and robots. This will be the fastest transition humankind has experienced, and we're not ready for it.

Not everyone agrees with my view. Some people argue that it will take longer than we think before jobs disappear, since many jobs will be only partially replaced, and companies will try to redeploy those displaced internally. But even if true, that won't stop the inevitable. Others remind us that every technology revolution has created new jobs as it displaced old ones. But it's dangerous to assume this will be the case again.

Then there are the symbiotic optimists, who think that AI combined with humans should be better than either one alone. This will be true for certain professions—doctors, lawyers—but most jobs won't fall in that category. Instead they are routine, single-domain jobs where AI excels over the human by a large margin.

While that outlook is fairly gloomy, the writer says that rather than despair, we should look the situation square in the eye and be proactive: 

These changes are coming, and we need to tell the truth and the whole truth. We need to find the jobs that AI can't do and train people to do them. We need to reinvent education. These will be the best of times and the worst of times. If we act rationally and quickly, we can bask in what's  best rather than wallow in what's  worst.

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mhhf1ve
mhhf1ve
4/9/2018 12:33:26 AM
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Platinum
Re: Automation Takes Over Jobs
The worry *I* have about advanced AI is the growing and accelerating wealth gap. The people who own the robots and factories will be positioned nicely to profit handsomely while workers and wage earners will become increasingly obsolete in the workplace. How will society adapt to this? Will basic income schemes really be able to support society? Will people have to become artists and creative writers to ever hope to add value to the world?

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Ariella
Ariella
4/9/2018 11:30:51 AM
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Re: Automation Takes Over Jobs
@mhhf1ve I'm not a fan of basic income schemes. First of all, the amounts proposed are about $1K a month, which would not even cover housing costs in the NYC area, never mind other life necessities. Secondly, from a psychological perspective, I think it pushes people into a mindset that saps the feeling of accomplishment one gets from earning one's way. Thirdly, there is no way that approach is economically feasible beyond the very short term in very limited circumstances. 

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mhhf1ve
mhhf1ve
4/9/2018 1:08:20 PM
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Platinum
Re: Automation Takes Over Jobs
Definitely basic income schemes are not for everyone... But I think it might be useful for at least *some* people? I wonder if there are any studies of "trust fund kids" who are already living a basic income lifestyle of sorts? Conceivably, there could be some kind of trust that funded the lives of a population of people indefiintely -- and perhaps that might be even more practical with advanced AI where the AI does all the "work" to earn money (day trading or tirelessly manufacturing) and people live off the fruit of a robot's labor.... 

Obviously, there are drawbacks to an entire society built on some kind of basic income scheme (ahem, see Communism), but pure Capitalism has its faults, too. Perhaps we need some hybrid system of capitalism and a widespread lottery system for a basic income. Okay, that sounds like a dystopian short story of the future, but... the robots *are* coming, after all. 

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Ariella
Ariella
4/9/2018 1:28:59 PM
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Re: Automation Takes Over Jobs
@mhhf1ve I admit to not know anyone with a trust fund personally. But my impression is that they would be living off way more than a $12K a year, probably more like $120K a year. What I do know are people who have their parents buy their houses for them free and clear and then buy their furniture for them and their carpeting, etc, you get the picture. And these people still manage to not save money from their jobs and claim not to have enough to even fix their cars unless their parents shell out yet more money for them. That's the problem of the "someone else is taking care of me" mindset; you never have to make it on your own, so you don't. And you also never have the pride of a full grownup -- even into middle age.

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mhhf1ve
mhhf1ve
4/9/2018 1:41:33 PM
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Platinum
Re: Automation Takes Over Jobs
The "pride of a full grownup" is an interesting concept. I'm not so sure who really gets to claim that award. Everyone needs help, sometimes serious help, from time to time -- unless you're really really lucky or somehow incredibly talented. And even then, incredibly talented people need help. Do you only get to claim your "adulting badge" if you pulled yourself up by your own bootstraps? 

There was a recent simulation that demonstrated that luck might be a greater factor than talent in achieving some success.... 

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/610395/if-youre-so-smart-why-arent-you-rich-turns-out-its-just-chance/

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Ariella
Ariella
4/9/2018 3:25:16 PM
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Re: Automation Takes Over Jobs
@mhhf1ve Let me put it to you this way: it's the differnece between giving the man a fish and teaching him to fish. Sure, you can give him the fish so that he's not starving, and you should. But you also have to teach him to fish for himself. If you fail to do the equivalent of that, you're keeping him in depedent mode. Then you can feel the gratification of the person who bestows the fish on the poor man, and he is ever after in the position of the one who needs to ask for help. Now some parents seem to get addicted to feeling needed and so they never want their children to be truly independent. I don't consider that a healthy situation for either side, and this psychology article concurs. 

I remember a young mother once commenting on her toddler son's having learned to walk and so "he doesn't need me any more." Of course, that's absurd, but some people like to have complete dependence because feeling needed is very gratifying. But when bringing up children, the goal should not be to keep in the nest where you feed them ever after but have them grow strong enough to fly off on their own. That's the fulfilling life of a grownup. Will bumps occur along the way? Likely yes, but resilient people will view asking for help as a temporary solution -- not a long term life plan. 

 

 

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Ariella
Ariella
4/9/2018 3:46:52 PM
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Re: Automation Takes Over Jobs
@mhhf1ve Also I'm not talking about becoming a major success like the wonderkids in the tech world who managed to have the right idea at the right time for it to take off spectacularly. I'm merely talking about being able to earn an income that covers your living expenses. It all goes back to the pride a kid feels when she can tie her own shoes or prepare her own lunch. from https://kidshealth.org/en/parents/self-esteem.html

Self-esteem is the result of experiences that help a child feel capable, effective, and accepted. 
  • When kids learn to do things for themselves and feel proud of what they can do, they feel capable. 
  • Children feel effective when they see that good things come from efforts like trying hard, getting close to a goal, or making progress. 

Replace all that with a guaranteed income and no outlet for meaningful use of skills, then a person feel neither capable nor effective. 

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mhhf1ve
mhhf1ve
4/9/2018 5:05:33 PM
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Platinum
Re: Automation Takes Over Jobs
Yes. We are agreed. There is some level of accomplishment that one should feel good about, and being self-sufficient is a goal that society should try to hold up. That said, there is also a need for a safety net to catch people when unfortunate events happen, and a basic income might be one way to address such an issue. Essentially, social security for people who aren't yet retired...? 

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Ariella
Ariella
4/9/2018 1:33:45 PM
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Re: Automation Takes Over Jobs
@mhhf1ve Also people derive a great deal of their identity from the work they do. Sitting idle while a robot does all your work for you does not lead to a fulfilling life. We don't just live for pleasure but for self-actualization and meaning. So unless the people freed of work find some course of study or volunteer outlets that will add meaning to their lives and allow them to use their abilities for good, they are likely to grow bored and depressed, possibly even to start experimenting with illegal substances or dangerous behavior just to break up the tedium of their lives. 

As for the the other side of just getting by on the dole, I just saw this quote 
Thomas Sowell: "Welfare can give you money but it cannot give you job experience that will move you ahead economically." The same holds for the "basic income" idea. It's not a long term solution by any measure.


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vnewman
vnewman
4/14/2018 6:39:11 PM
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Platinum
Re: Automation Takes Over Jobs
Just playing devils advocate here. But what if robots doing our work enabled us the time to volunteer to help each other in the community? What if people didn’t need childcare because they could drop their kids off at the neighbor’s house? What if people built each other homes for free aside from the cost of supplies. In my eyes, this illustrates the point that if we are going to live in an automated society, competition as we know it may fall out of favor and collaboration and cooperation will become the norm to survive and thrive.

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Michelle
Michelle
4/14/2018 8:56:02 PM
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Platinum
Re: Automation Takes Over Jobs
I think your vision has merit. We don't know what to expect with automation and this scenario could be an option. I wonder if automation will free up human time or just use it in different ways...

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srufolo1
srufolo1
4/10/2018 9:04:34 AM
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Platinum
Re: Automation Takes Over Jobs
@mhhf1ve I'm skeptical about basic income schemes. They certainly won't help raise people up from poverty. Maybe playing HQ Trivia with a chance to win lots of money twice a day is the answer to our dystopian future. I know I intend to find a smart friend today to win $300,000 at 3 p.m. today. Ha ha.

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mhhf1ve
mhhf1ve
4/10/2018 1:03:02 PM
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Platinum
Re: Automation Takes Over Jobs
> "... playing HQ Trivia with a chance to win lots of money twice a day is the answer to our dystopian future..."

Wow. That sounds like a Max Headroom future, for sure. Is that the next 80s show to get rebooted? 

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srufolo1
srufolo1
4/10/2018 10:04:17 PM
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Platinum
Re: Automation Takes Over Jobs
@mhhf1ve  HQ Trivia has been compared to the movie "Hunger Games," but I don't think it's that bad. It's an app you download on your iPhone. 

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vnewman
vnewman
4/13/2018 11:09:26 AM
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Platinum
Re: Automation Takes Over Jobs
You make a great point - it appears that humans are going to have to capitalize on the very things that set us apart from machines - and “creating” art is one them. Music is another. So is the ability to connect with other humans and empathize. My fear is all of humankind is going to merely become a gaggle of salespeople: Selling merchandise or their own brand.

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Ariella
Ariella
4/14/2018 9:05:55 PM
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Re: Automation Takes Over Jobs
<My fear is all of humankind is going to merely become a gaggle of salespeople: Selling merchandise or their own brand. > @vnewman well, sales are a job that is practically obsoltete-proof since it earns its own way. I remember talking to a sales hiring manager about that many years ago.

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vnewman
vnewman
4/15/2018 6:05:23 PM
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Platinum
Re: Automation Takes Over Jobs
@Ariella - i do think you’re spot on with that statement - you can’t turn around without somebody trying to sell you something or shove their lifestyle brand down your throat. In my opinion - it’s annoying. There used to be a little decorum used by people where there would be a time and place for “selling” but you could have a space reserved for strictly personal matters. That doesn’t seem to exist anymore.

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DHagar
DHagar
4/16/2018 6:17:56 PM
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Platinum
Re: Automation Takes Over Jobs
@Ariella, interesting thoughts!  I believe you are right.  What needs to transform that mechanistic world, with annoying results, is a focus on value delivery vs. sales delivery.  That might help us focus less on all these transactions and create relationships, use of knowledge that transforms us into something of greater use to each of us.

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Michelle
Michelle
4/15/2018 3:17:24 PM
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Platinum
Re: Automation Takes Over Jobs
@vnewman I hadn't thought of it in that light myself. A future filled with sales sounds awful. Advertising is bad enough. We reallllly don't need even more sales people (unless the future is so different we actually do).

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mhhf1ve
mhhf1ve
4/9/2018 12:26:22 AM
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Platinum
Re: Automation Takes Over Jobs
I'm not so sure that Elon Musk isn't right to worry. If we don't at least think about the consequences of super-human AI, then we might be surprised-- unpleasantly if the worst case scenario (or even just a sorta bad scenario happens) in the future. The "flash crash" of the stock market in 2010 should make us all a bit concerned that bots control too much of our economy already.

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freehe
freehe
4/21/2018 10:58:24 AM
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Platinum
Re: Automation Takes Over Jobs
@mhhf1ve. Great point. Automation could result in a huge increase in unemployment and result in an economic downturn as million of blue collar workers will no longer spend money due to lack of employment. Only then will companies discover how automation has impacted the economy.

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freehe
freehe
4/21/2018 11:00:15 AM
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Platinum
Re: Automation Takes Over Jobs
@mpouraryan. That's great but not all employees are in a position to transition into those jobs. Employees will also be looking for a certain skill set and characteristics when transitioning those employees. If you are a lazy employee or just do the bare minimum, have poor attendance etc. you will not be transitioned into those positions.

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mpouraryan
mpouraryan
4/22/2018 1:38:08 AM
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Platinum
Re: Automation Takes Over Jobs
THat's why it is imperative that the policy perspecptions are created now and not tomorrow-as one cannot simply rely on the "invisible hand" to help transform.   Even Adam Smith himself acknowledged that the invisible hand had to be guided.   The Facebook debacle is the latest manifestation of it.

 

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srufolo1
srufolo1
4/10/2018 9:06:56 AM
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Platinum
Automation Means Job Cuts
Automation will definitely eliminate jobs as the article implied that was the idea all along. Where are these employees that lose jobs supposed to shift to? Maybe they can be trained to work in factories that produce robots. Wouldn't that be ironic.

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mhhf1ve
mhhf1ve
4/10/2018 1:04:47 PM
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Platinum
Re: Automation Means Job Cuts
> "Maybe they can be trained to work in factories that produce robots."

Nope. Why wouldn't robots make more robots? Somehow we're going to need to train a lot more robot designers or something....

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DHagar
DHagar
4/11/2018 5:48:24 PM
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Platinum
Re: Automation Means Job Cuts
@mhhf1ve, now you are talking!  Just putting people against robots in routine jobs is not the answer.  Moving up the foodchain to design, development, and value-added services is where we need to place the humans.  That is where humans and human intelligence has the advantage.

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Michelle
Michelle
4/14/2018 8:57:51 PM
User Rank
Platinum
Re: Automation Means Job Cuts
I have concerns about those in society who fall below the average intelligence line. They could run into serious issues finding work if robots have taken what they could do well. I think an automated society will have a lot of challenges in the future...

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DHagar
DHagar
4/16/2018 6:14:19 PM
User Rank
Platinum
Re: Automation Means Job Cuts
@Michelle, good thinking on the changes taking place!  I believe the "routine" processing tasks we have many people perform can be automated.  I equally believe that we can take all individuals and upskill them to work either with technology and/or data in the performance of their jobs that will make them valuable and move them up the supply chain!  This includes social skills in working as teams, delivering customer service, interpreting problems, etc.  In other words, we need to focus on the human skills now not just the technical skills. 

I believe these skills will become a part of everyone's job in the new economy, not the technical/engineering jobs for tech, degreed data scientists, etc.  This can add value to everyone!

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freehe
freehe
4/21/2018 10:50:20 AM
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Platinum
Job Cuts
I agree. Automation will result in job cuts. Companies don't want to be completely truthful about the impact of automation on the job market. I avoid using automation in retail stores and continue to pay for items with a cashier even if the line is longer to help employees maintain their jobs a little longer.

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freehe
freehe
4/21/2018 10:51:55 AM
User Rank
Platinum
Automation
Automation will result in job cuts because it does not make good business sense to implement automation and still use humans to perform the same jobs that the automation is eliminating. In addition, companies are always looking for ways to reduce their bottom line and increase profits, many times at the expense of consumers and employees.

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freehe
freehe
4/21/2018 10:56:17 AM
User Rank
Platinum
Jobs Lost
Many blue collar jobs will be automated and those employees will become unemployed or will have to go back to school to learn automation skills such as AI, AR or VR to remain employable. Blue collar employees could also move to countries where automation is not as popular. However, automation will continue to spread and will eventually be used global-wide.

I recently read two articles on this subject.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/countries-safest-robot-job-revolution-180038074.html

http://fortune.com/2017/08/28/automation-ai-jobs/

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Shaunn
Shaunn
4/22/2018 3:32:10 PM
User Rank
Platinum
Job Cuts
This is one of those times when people will have to make tough decisions. A company can refrain from automation, but can eventually fall behind as competitors advance and have to lay-off employees then. Automation may not be adopted too fast because of that, but it can only be put off so long untill automation of certain jobs becomes the standard. Hopefully knowing it's coming will help out the people who lose their jobs.

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